"the daily rundown starts right now with chuck todd. have a great weekend. we're back tomorrow night. as we fall back from daylight savings, the candidates are using every minute of that extra hour. president obama bounces from one battle ground state to another using ohio as his airline hub. he's using all the hot spots trying to rally his base and any undecided voters he thinks are left. governor romney is also racing against the clock, tweaking his argument. and in case you forgot, we've got more than two guys running on tuesday, tonight we'll break down all of the battles, particularly for congress and who will decide control of it and what the next president can get done. good evening from democracy plaza. it's saturday, november 3, 2012. this is a prime time edition of "the daily rundown."

we're taking a look at how we got here. presidential elections that aren't close are actually odd. no republican has gotten more than 300 electoral votes since 1988. only four democrats in history have gotten more than 53% of the vote. bottom line, this is 1976 meets 2000 meets 2004. in other words, it's a very close race. so how did we get here? the president began this campaign weighed down by a troubled economy and still faces a jobless rate higher than any incumbent seeking re-election since fdr. in the president's first six months there was a lot of money spent some of it by choice, most of it by need. the wall street bailout, the federal stimulus and the auto bailout. at the time most of us said as

gm goes, so goes the presidency. >> you know this really is a big one. it's kennedy in the steel industry, it's reagan the air traffic controllers. this is a big moment. >> and on tuesday, this race could come down to how that decision has echoed in the state of ohio where government spending wasn't popular and neither was health care. three cruel summers began with the angry town halls in 2009 that soured the public on the health care law that eventually passed. of course there was that 2010 bp oil spill which shook faith in government a little bit. republicans won the house with the largest gain for either party since 1948. >> this is something that i think every president needs to go through. now, i'm not recommending for every future president that they

took a shellacking like i did last night. >> after that, the debt ceiling crisis in 2011. and then the president began to string together a few victories. it started after the 2010 elections reconciling with former president bill clinton who made his debut as a character witness in 2010. in delivering a 1-2 punch that now has become a staple in this campaign. >> i've been keeping the first lady waiting for about half an hour. so i'm going to take off. >> i don't want to make her mad. please go. >> you're in good hands. >> the president signed the repeal of don't ask, don't tell. he put together a checklist of accomplishments that you hear now on the campaign trail. withdrawing the finest troops from iraq. >> tonight i can report to the american people and to the world that the united states has conducted an operation that killed osama bin laden, the leader of al qaeda. >> he put together a coalition in building intensity with his

case, by supporting gay marriage, easing immigration rules. and the obama campaign focused single mindedly on beating mitt romney as early as it could. the president has since caught a few breaks. the job less rate fell blow 8%. the lowest level since the month of the president took office. but tuesday's elections will show was it enough to off-set the president's debate performance in denver? >> you know, four years ago i said that i'm not a perfect man and i wouldn't be a perfect president and that's probably a promise that governor romney thinks i've kept. >> that said, the president might be in a position of ekeking out. >> making sure that health care choices for women are controlled by women, as opposed to -- and i'm going to ask young people to pay for more college.

>> you hear hope and change has been replaced by block and tackle. >> mitt romney's road to election day he dropped out of the presidential race in 2008 and endorsed john mccain. from the outside, romney's strength was also a liability. he was a suburban moderate republican with midwestern roots in a party that some call too conservative, evangelical and republican. as conservatives soured on the idea of a health care mandate, romney tried to inoculate himself on his achievement as governor. he says we can accomplish the same thing for everyone in the country and it can be done without letting government take over health care. and it was done without government taking over health care.

in june 2011 at a farm in new hampshire, romney officially announced his second bid for the presidency. >> just one of the guys running. >> the first element of becoming the front runner was keeping viable challengers out of the race and one by one they bowed out. finally the summer of 2011 a viable challenger got in, rick perry. they all surged to leads in the national polls before self destructing. finally romney ended up one on one with rick santorum. iowa where romney appeared to eke out an eight-vote win, a few weeks later santorum was declared the victory and then ohio. >> we are actually looking at recount provisions in the state of ohio. our models have it that close. >> romney's struggle in ohio was

in the 2008 op-ed called for a managed bankruptcy but said the government should only guarantee private loans. detroit needs a turnaround not a check. the piece was titled let detroit go bankrupt. romney survived the primary gauntlet and let republican super pacs hammer the president on the hair. the campaign spend a lot of time defining romney before romney was able to define obama. he was criticized for taking a week off in july. and for bungling that foreign trip to england, israel and poland. he announced paul ryan as his running mate but that didn't produce the bump he needed. as the focus of the race turned to medicare and the ryan budget. the republican convention was disrupted by weather and a guy

talking to an empty chair. and then mid september, the leaked video of mitt romney's 47% remark surfaced. the first presidential debate, romney bested obama in front of 66 million people and began to benefit from momentum. and then hurricane sandy hit. on tuesday romney will try to unseat an incumbent president, he's trying to knock a party out of power after just one term. while the president is targeting each part of his coalition with a handful of small arguments, romney is counting on winning the large one. >> he made a lot of promises, but those promises he couldn't keep. and the difference between us, he made promises he couldn't keep, i'm making promises i have

kept and i will keep them for the american people. >> so where does that leave us? the two campaigns believe passionately in two different realities. the president obama campaign believes the countries demographics have changed the electorate in your favor. the romney campaign believes you have the momentum to swing over. it's possible we are headed for a 50/50 split. it all comes down to nine states or seven or five? whatever the result. polarization is hardening. the house has changed hands three times in the last two decades. two of those times have been in the last six years. red states are getting redder and blue states are getting bluer. the even in the swing states, giving county maps that watch work look if you will. shifting demographics are

changing, the makeup of the electorate in 1980 whites made up nine of every ten voters. but by 2008 that number dropped to 74%. one of tuesday's most important predictors will be that important makeup. it's very possible that the president could win with the lowest share of blue collar whites since 1984 because the republican party is likely to get the lowest share of latino and african-americans in its history. we're a 50/50 country deciding whether taxes go up or down, how you get health insurance. the fundamental role of government in your life could be decided. the great challenge for the winner will be more divided than we've had in a long time. all right. now we're going to get into the weeds. up next, time for a very heavy dose of flova. the view from the ground florida, virginia and ohio. here's a look at the president's schedule.

romney's schedule, looks like he's making some time for the key stone state. and the vice president stopping by "hardball" tomorrow night. we're locked up right here in democracy plaza.

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>> we need you, virginia. we've got to take back america. i'm counting on you. >> they're betting on cynicism. ohio, i'm betting on you. i'm betting on you. >> you have that responsibility, you have that opportunity and on november the 6th, florida can make mitt romney the next president of the united states. >> ladies and gentlemen, with

you we can win. we win florida, we win this election! >> well, in 2000 the election turned on the state of florida. in 2004 it was ohio that was the key. in 2008, virginia found itself in the center spotlight. collectively i've been calling them flohva. until florida our new poll has president obama up. ohio we still have the president holding his lead. 51% to 45%. and in a recent poll of likely voters in virginia, the president was up 2 points, a statistical tie and nbc news has it's own coming out tomorrow morning. look at the ad spending in these three states. more than half a billion collectively in the mega states

of flohva. they're not just spending money there, they're spending time. the president will have visited the sunshine state 14 times, for mitt romney it's 16. president obama will have made 19 stops in ohio, governor romney will be there 21 times. so let's get to our special panel. adam smith is the political editor, chris booker, wcmh and larry sabado. larry, let me start with you. the state of virginia, last time it was the closest to the country, the national popular vote. it was the one point off if you will of what obama -- mccain's numbers were, does the winner of

the popular vote win virginia, larry? >> i think virginia is very very, close, chuck. i think you could argue that virginia is one of the two or three closest states in the country right now. it's funny to have a panel of florida, ohio and virginia. florida and ohio are used to this attention. they get it every four years. we used to be the bulgaria of american politics and now we've turned into the paris. or that's how we feel. i would say on the whole, having talked to both sides repeatedly, they both insist that their trackings show their candidate up a point or two. and i have no reason to disbelief them. that leads me to believe that it's very close. president obama would love to have virginia, because if he gets it, he really blocks most of the reasonable pathways to 270, assuming he keeps ohio and he's clearly ahead there. and governor romney really needs

virginia. he's got to have it. >> speaking of gotting to have a state, let's go down to adam smith in florida. you guys had a poll out today, 51-45 that had romney ahead. this seems to be saturday same story that larry is hearing in virginia, i hear in florida, where the two sides insist they're ahead because they believe in two different world views of what the electorate is going to look like. >> i hear the same thing that both sides are convinced they're up by a point or two and this is a margin of error race. today was the last day of early voting in florida. democrats are up about 104,000 votes over republican votes, but that's significantly less than the advantage they had four years ago. >> a number i heard adam was 160, i think, is what somebody told me if they get to 160, 200, somewhere in that range, they think they can win -- that they'll get enough on election day to pull that off. that sounds like they're going to fall short. >> it's sounds like they're going to fall short and we've got early voting lines of five

hours in more in places like miami. i saw a thousand people waiting in line in st. petersburg today. if they come slightly short, it may not matter in the electoral college but i think there may be cutting back of early election days. >> chris booker i know the state made an announcement today, is it over or are still more early vote to come? >> there's more early vote to come tomorrow. obviously sunday is a big day, chuck. you'll have the souls to the polls effort of trying to get out the african-american vote. we have evangelicals coming in. i've heard that rand paul is supposed to be where casick lives, the state of ohio, the effort to get out both sides of the vote which my sources tell

me is very very close. >> chris, the jeep ad that governor romney ran and there is's been some hammering about it quietly, has that been a decisive thing, are we going to look back at this and say romney came up short in ohio because of the jeep ad? >> you know, chuck. i think it's going to be fascinating. when you think of one of the earliest decisions that the president made was that auto bailout that that may be the defining issue. and my democrat sources say that it just showed desperation, it smacked of desperation and even some republicans have told me that he needed to take on the auto bailout sooner rather than what happened in this last week with this ad in toledo. >> larry, if you could have only one county to watch, what county would you pick? >> probably lauden county. president obama doesn't have to win it. he did win it four years ago,

but he has to come close. because he needs northern virginia to turn in a very strong performance. >> adam smith, same question to you. if you could only have one county's results in the state of florida. what county do you want? >> i wish you could give me three. if i had one i would have to go with hillsborough county. >> the other two? >> miami and orange county. >> you want to know what the gaps would be there. >> and chris booker same to you. >> don't you want to see hamilton county went for obama in 2008, but traditional republican stronghold. you would like to see where they break on tuesday. >> see, we don't need three states. we've got it down to three counties. chris booker, larry and adam smith in tampa bay, thank you all. appreciate it. next up, your "daily

rundown" guide what to watch for as the results came in on tuesday. but first today's trivia yes. name the only two states that flipped their presidential vote in both 2004 and 2008. gore, bush and obama. that's your hint. the answer coming up on this special prime time edition of "the daily rundown." we'll be right back. ♪ ♪ ♪ hi dad. many years from now, when the subaru is theirs... hey. you missed a spot. ...i'll look back on this day and laugh. love.

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first let's set the stage at the look of where the candidates are headed over the remaining days. three more time sunday, monday and saturday here. it looks like an airline hub for air force 1. he's still getting others in. he's still getting a bit of colorado and florida, but look at this. the final day, on monday. ohio, wisconsin and iowa. there's a reason for it. let's take a look at mitt romney's schedule as you can see here. it includes plenty of ohio. he gets there twice. he's throwing in pennsylvania, though. what pennsylvania is, is this a position of strength or is this the ohio insurance policy if it doesn't come through? because here's the other problem he has because he's also gone to new hampshire a couple of times and he's closing there. florida and virginia and ohio don't get him to 270. the state of new hampshire would get him to 270. and even if it's florida, virginia and pennsylvania, he still needs two more going in. now let's go through the poll closing business here, by 9:00

p.m. polls will have closed here t and here's the way to look at it. if, say, at 7:00, virginia is too close to call, that's not good news for romney. you have the feeling as if romney is going to overperform the national number by a point or two in virginia. if that's a too-close-to-call state, and we haven't called it by 9:00, i think the folks will be worried. if by 9:00 we haven't called pennsylvania, then suddenly the folks in chicago better be nervous because this is a state that hasn't been on the battleground but the assumption has been there is a built-in vote there thanks to philadelphia. now what about quick calls. let's say if we call florida and virginia fairly quickly. well, that tells us this could be, and we have not yet called,

for instance, ohio and that's too close to call. well evenly that could be a pretty good romney night. let's do it here. what if we call ohio early. there's going to be a lot of sort of that's the ball game type thing. there are still paths for romney without ohio, but the point is how quickly do we call those states? it's an interesting way to watch the night. let me quickly of course throw you through a couple of scenarios and what i want to do tonight is sort of what is the most narrow way for things to go and what is the quickest way? the quickest way for the president to get to 270 is ohio and wisconsin. and that's what they're counting on. when we talk about the midwest fire wall, that's what we talk about. so when you've got mitt romney, he needs all these states. he needs florida, he needs virginia, he needs colorado, and he needs new hampshire and this is a way to do it without ohio. that's the one piece of good news. what if he can't get a wisconsin? wisconsin would put him over the top. what's his fastest way to get there? you put ohio back over here and

he could do it then without colorado and without iowa. so his fastest way to 270 would be florida, virginia, ohio and new hampshire. so there's a way to watch this night. there's a way to watch it before 9:00. what we haven't called can tell you about where the night is headed. next on the low down on the down ballot races. you're watching a special prime time he designation of "the daily rundown." we'll be right back. ♪ ♪ [ female announcer ] think you need to go to a department store counter to treat your toughest skin concerns? join the counter revolution and switch to olay pro-x to see results in 28 days.

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there are other important races out there that we're watching. 33 senate seats up for grabs. believe it or not there are of15 them that we think will be

decided by less than 10 points. it's the mother lode of great races. six are in so-called red states, and three are in blue states. joining me now, nbc news and editor, charlie cook. this has been a great year for senate races. >> yeah, it's a shame. if this were a mid term election, they would get new credit. >> i'm going to put up. what we have is this is based on the cook map right now. this is everything that's likely that's in red or blue. so we start this way and we have 15 of them. so we're going to quickly run down the ones that you don't have in toss-up anymore but are lean in the presidential states.

hit me. >> pennsylvania. >> tom casey -- tom smith scared bob casey but casey is going to hold. >> ohio? >> you skipped on me. >> nevada. >> nevada. close but to dean heller. >> all right. next one? >> ohio. it's closed up but brown wins. >> does he outperform the president by what, two points? >> i don't know. >> yeah, yeah. >> if you were to guess, it's going to be a tight race? >> florida, nelson beats mak. then we get to virginia. >> where are you there? >> i guess i would give kane maybe a tiny finger on the scale. >> give it to blue? >> i don't know. >> we'll put it there for now. that gets us through the presidential toss-ups. let's go to the red states if you will. these are a ton of great states. >> flake wins. >> montana, that's scary. everybody, both sides say it's really too close. >> the libertarian candidate is going to make the winning

number. >> it could. >> i guess he gets a couple. this guy john tester up a point or two and the question is does that save him? let's do edge tester. >> all right. next one? north dakota right next door. >> berg wins. it's very very close. >> the same way you feel about montana. >> yeah. >> not quite as close. >> yeah. >> let's stick in the red states. nebraska. >> it tightened up, fisher wins. >> bob kerry keeps it under ten. >> missouri? >> mccaskill wins. it's like philadelphia in the east, pittsburgh in the west and alabama in between. kansas city, st. louis and alabama in between.

>> indiana? >> close but i think donnelly edges, which again obama is going to lose a state, but donnelly i think will win. but it will be very competitive. >> you know, we skipped one of the big swing ones, wisconsin. what's going to be closer, wisconsin or virginia? >> i have you silent. i have you silent. is wisconsin that close? who would you put on tammy or tommy? >> i think i would go edge to tommy but very close. >> you don't even know what the makeup we've made here. >> maine, massachusetts, connecticut. does anything go red in those three? >> no. >> none of them go red. we're going give independent to maine? >> yeah.

>> you're going to have elizabeth warren and scott murphy holding on, chris murphy holding on. guess what you end up having? a net zero. 53-48. >> just think how many billions of dollars spent. >> what does it say -- it's a converse we're going to have. what does i say we're going to spend $6 billion and we may have a status quo election house president and the presidency. >> it cancels itself out and this is the opposite of the last three elections. now there is no way one way or the other. >> let's talk quickly about the house. i know there's been, tons of redistricting, certainly plenty of competitive interesting house races and yet i think the stunning thing for a lot of people this week was democrats quietly admitting they may not pick up a seat. >> it's entirely possible you could have it break even. the republicans won when the maps were drawn and they

probably pulled 15 seats that would have gone democratic off. so instead of looking at even or maybe democrats picking up 15, 20 seats, we're talking about democrats breaking even or maybe picking up 5. >> who is the leader of the house democrats. >> the question is does nancy pelosi leave soon or does she want to wait through the budget deal and then leave. i don't think she'll be in congress a year from today. and the question is do they do generational change. >> look at this. you didn't plan on this, i don't think. but status quo. >> i heard we were going to do this, i hated you. >> thank you, charlie. i spoke one on one request seven of the 11 senators that are leaving this year. if you go to our website, you can see the interviews on all of those issues and all of them talk about what's wrong with washington and what could make it work better. we're back in democracy plaza and some of the stranger ways to predict who will win on tuesday. we'll be right back. ♪ ♪

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a now a different way to predict the winner of the presidential race. you may heard of the red skins rule. when they win their last home game prior to a presidential election, that election is won by the party that won the popular vote in the previous election. when they lose the last home game, it is won by the party that lost the popular vote in the previous election. this rule is 18 for 18. it had an addendum to it because the one year it could have been wrong when they lost but president bush won re-election. but the popular vote. in 2008, the phillies won the world series, obama carried pennsylvania and he went on to

win the election. in '96 the yankees won, clinton carried new york. tigers won, reagan carried mitch, you get the picture? we could keep going. you get to go all the way back to herbert hoover. the world series champs this year come from california. and one of the newest predictors is in college football. the winner of the university of alabama-lsu game. let's bring our saturday super panel. tom brokaw, how about that? >> that's for the people of alabama and lsu care about more than the president. >> i'm confident in that prediction. >> tom, i want to talk about

this larger issue that i think no matter who wins or loses. the winning candidate has to govern a nation that is really, really divided. >> yeah, it's not going to be a mandate it appears from all the polling that we're seeing and just the anecdotal evidence as well, i think it's going to be tougher for president obama if he gets re-elected because it does appear that the house will remain in the hands of the republicans and a lot of those are tea party members who will be going back to the house. i've been talk to go some of them. they have not given up the cause, the crusade. they're not going away. for governor romney, he likes to talk about how well he got along with the democrats when he was in the massachusetts state house.

it's a different set of democrats that he'll be dealing with if he gets to be president who are in the senate and it appears that they'll hang on to the senate. >> one of the things that may be going on here, that some of the republicans may be hinting at, al of you are new yorkers, and the idea that somehow they froze the race that we know, but did it actually help the president? maybe all of us are too consumed to know about it for sure. but eroll, the cooperation between bloomberg, cuomo, chris tea and the president couldn't have heard him. >> it shows the guy can do his day job at a minimum. and you know, freezing the race for a few days really hurts romney. he had a lot of ground to make up in some key states and he just got pushed off the page. he didn't have any active roll that would take him into the news cycle related to sandy and

marginally, around the edges a lot of the worst scenarios happen to be republican strong holds. it so happens a lot of the places that were devastated were in more conservative areas. >> when christie said he was thanking president obama, two days before it was about how the president was terrible at bipartisanship and the mitt romney presidency would be good at it. >> i think it takes a big storm to make a big case for big government and i think that's what we've seen. you have a situation where romney was calling for emergency services to be pushed back to the states and for there to be sharing, but when you've got a block of 12 states sitting together. >> kelly, one of the reasons i was told that mitt romney was so doing this bipartisan message is suburban women. >> absolutely. >> and women were tired of this polarization. >> they are and you know they're going to decide the election. many of them who voted for obama

last time around may have been on the fence this time around. i think on that point i think one of the issues of vulnerables for the president has been this leadership issues question not being a strong enough leader. voila, the week before the election he clearly has shown leadership on this issue that many suburban women will be able to work with him and get something done. >> is this blaming sandy by republicans a little unfair? >> if they do blame it on sandy, it will be unfair. i think if the president wins it's going to be the get out the vote that he's going to put together across the country in ohio and all of the key states. he'll win with the latino vote, with the african-american vote, with women generally, with what labor impact still remains in those states. so he's going to do a patch work thing but they're very confident about that. what i do think that the month of october has told us is that

the absence of passion for either one of these candidates, because the national got moved -- >> so easily. >> they really did. they just moved around the landscape, wake up tuesday morning i'm going to go the other way. >> that remind me of 2000. bush-gore was that way. the passion wasn't for each of them. >> that's right. i agree with that. and i think that may be one reason it's time to bring on bill clinton as we're seeing. >> it is also a reminder. this is why i think, what if they're both right. what if they're both ride about their models and we end up with this collision of recounts. i think it's more possible than people realize. >> i do, too. and having been through it in 2000. >> when we come back, we're going to do a little bit of surprises. >> i only have a few years left. >> you haven't seen it all, i promise you. >> 269-269. then you can say you've seen it all. trivia time.

we asked name the only two states that flipped their presidential vote both in 2004 and in 2008. they were gore, bush, obama. they why iowa and new mexico. could they flip again? we'll be right back. from democracy plaza. ♪ ♪ ♪ [ male announcer ] some day, your life will flash before your eyes. ♪ make it worth watching. ♪ the new 2013 lexus ls. an entirely new pursuit.

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i wanted to know whether we kault call you governor ventics ra or governor the body. >> well, actually, tom, i've changed that. i'm no longer the body, i'm jesse "the mind" ventura. >> it was this day in 1998 when former professional wrestler shocked the world when he won a third-party victory in the state

minnesota deep. norm coleman and hubrert humphrey, ii. let's bring back our panel. i'll start with you, if you had a surprise that you think ventura asked that could come, and i'll tell you, on the monday before the election, ventura in tracking polls was coming but he was still in third place. >> i think we all know the latino vote is important. i think it's going to be a margin of victory and will reshape politics in colorado, nevada, florida and north carolina. and it could be the margin in several or even all four of those states which, in -- >> the president says it will be one or two of those because of

the latinos. >> it will reshape politics in those states. >> verona, what do you have? >> i don't know if this is venturaesque, but i think there's a chance that the house could go democrat. >> that would shock the world. you know what, i applaud the bold list. >> i'm going bold. i'll tell you why. conventional wisdom says when the economies go, it should favor incumbents. people just being completely disillusioned with congress and that has a tight correlation with incumbent upsets. >> mine is something that should not be a surprise. we have a record number of women running in the house and senate this year. women make up only 17 percent of the house and the senate. prediction here, surprising, it will be truly the year of the woman in 2012 and that women will increase that percentage about 17%. >> i promise you, in the senate, it will be at least 20 percent and maybe 21 or 22.

you love the unforseen. >> i've got a new surprise. my surprise will be if she's right. [ laughter ] my surprise is not so much a surprise, but something to keep your eye on. i think republicans across the country are going to tighten their holds on state capitals or state legislatures with long-time conservatives. it's how you spend education money, it's a tertiary that we don't talk about a lot. it changes the political endskap. >> and it certainly does the issue of governing. i'm just going to say that we'll have at least two states uncalled by 4:00 a.m. and we're going to be hanging -- you know, brian williams is going to hand it directly to matt lauer. we're just going to keep blowing

through our shameless plugs. errol? >> if you want to know anything that's going on with the effects of the storm, you have to watch ny1. >> okay, my monday column on time.com about what the markets are going to do if romney wins and if obama wins and it's not what you think. >> for the women's perspective, and the year of the woman. >> it's going to be a bigger one than people realize in the sfat. >> tom? >> my guess is that by wednesday morning, a lot of the country is going to say we went through all of this for this? >> $6 billion. my shameless plug is to anna tuman, her brother, he had gas in his car. thank you very much. that's it for this special prime time edition of the special daily run down. we're going to see you here on

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